The announcement came from a press conference organised by Honda Motor Co., they have decided to conclude their participation in the FIA Formula One World Championship as a power unit supplier at the end of the 2021 season. 

Honda had resumed competition in F1 in 2015, with a tumultuous partnership with McLaren and their star driver Fernando Alonso, before moving to Alpha Tauri - formerly Toro Rosso - in 2018, then adding Red Bull Racing  to their program in 2019.  With Red Bull keen to sign the Concorde agreements, both parties agreed for an engine supplying  contract which was expected to exceed 2021. So its termination comes a bit as a surprise, at least for the outsiders. 

Honda have explained the reason for their departure by the will to prioritise their environmental initiatives of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 for their automotive industry, hence the decision to terminate their F1 journey. The japanese manufacturer however reaffirmed their sheer commitment in delivering to Red Bull and Alpha Tauri, the best possible power unit for them to compete in the remainder of the 2020 and 2021 F1 seasons. 

With Honda to leave the sport beyond 2021, the Milton-Keynes based team - along with Alpha Tauri, the other Honda-powered team - are left scratching their heads, with an almost impossible equation to solve. Who will agree to supply them with a competitive power unit moving forward? 

As it stands, there are only three constructors remaining in the sport: MERCEDES, FERRARI and RENAULT. A poll about “who is going to power Red Bull’s beyond 2021” ran on social media indicates that 19% of voters think of Mercedes, 9.5% are for Ferrari, and a massive 71.5% are convinced Red Bull and Renault will be back together.

Back in 2015, Red Bull was reported to have issued a document requesting a termination of its agreement with Renault. The Red Bull’s management consequently approached Mercedes, enquiring about an engine supply. At the time, Toto Wolff said:

"Supplying one of your championship contenders with big resources, it needs to be carefully judged and balanced as to whether we would want to do that.” 

“But then from a global perspective, Red Bull is a really phenomenal brand that attracts younger audiences and consumers.” 

With the speculation about Red Bull’s future intensifying, Ferrari made a statement of intent in providing the austrian stable their power unit. The late Sergio Marchionne said in that instance:

“It’s in our DNA, we’ve done it before” 

“I think we can provide engines to any of the teams that want to race. As long as we keep control over the aerodynamic work on the car, I think there’s going to be enough distinguishing traits between us and the competition.”

“We are more than glad to try to provide a level playing field now that the engine is there.”

Following those comments, no confirmation came from neither Red Bull nor Ferrari for discussions to have taken place on the matter. 

Ultimately, the Mercedes’ board was understood to have decided not to supply F1 engines to Red Bull in the future, which induced two other years of a marriage of convenience with Renault, which finally ended in 2019, with Red Bull partnering with Honda. 

The fact Mercedes is currently powering four teams (themselves included), combined with their alleged past reluctance to supply an engine to a direct competitor imply they should be removed from the Red Bull’s equation.

What about Ferrari then? Well, Christian Horner assessing what the intricacies of Honda departing might be for his team said:

“Whilst we are disappointed not to continue our partnership with Honda, we are enormously proud of our joint success”

“As a group, we will now take the time afforded to us to further evaluate and find the most competitive power unit solution for 2022 and beyond.”

Ferrari have been in 2017 and 2018, one of the most competitive, if not the most competitive power unit of the field. Unfortunately, following a technical directive issued in November 2019, they have displayed a significant drop in performance. The italian team currently stands 6th in the constructors ranking, 118 points behind Red Bull, and 25 points behind Renault. At this point in time, no one can objectively estimate what season Ferrari will be back to their winning ways with a competitive power unit. And assuming Horner is only aiming at the most competitive tool, one has to wonder if the engine from Maranello is even considered by the British manager, as it would be a massive gamble.

The last but not the least solution on Red Bull’s table is Renault. The engine side looks really promising, as McLaren, currently powered by the french team, sits third in the constructors’ standing, with Renault consistently beating Ferrari and Alpha Tauri. 

However, If the partnership between McLaren and Honda has been tumultuous, it was nothing compared to the drama that surrounded the one of Red Bull and Renault. After having together won four consecutive double world championships pre hybrid era, the relationship deteriorated to a breakeven point. Red Bull very vocally blamed their engine supplier for their lack of competitiveness, and the several reliability issues they have encountered. It’s commonly admitted their differences are irreconcilable, as the Drive To Survive Netflix’ show which covered the backstage interactions within the paddock, highlighted. Yet, under the current rules, Renault would be forced into that same marriage of convenience again. They’re legally obliged to supply Red Bull - and AlphaTauri - with engines as they currently have the fewest customers, unless the team can convince other constructors to provide an engine supply. 

In conclusion, Red Bull’s options are either Renault, or convincing a potentially reluctant Mercedes to power them. They can also get outside-F1 brands such as Porsche to do the job, but it’s highly unlikely they could convince them in such a short notice. 

Another incidence of Honda’s departure is the uncertainty regarding Max Verstappen’s future with and within the team. At the beginning of the year, the young Dutchman signed a 4-years deal with Red Bull. The said contract was nonetheless reportedly written with an exit clause, which would be activated by Honda leaving the sport. Since the said departure has been officially announced, Verstappen will certainly look for the best backup solutions to secure his future in a top team. But in fairness, his options don’t look that good. Mercedes has Hamilton who’s rumoured to sign a three-year deal, and a plethoric  pool of talented junior drivers. Ferrari has signed their young future star Charles Leclerc till 2024, and Carlos Sainz as their newest recruit till 2022. They also have a blooming Ferrari driver academy with the likes of Schumacher, Ilott and Shwartzman. Aston Martin is yet to be ranked as a top or a midfield team, so it is too much of an unknown.

In the end, one can only wish Red Bull to find a solution competitive enough to  keep their promising talent within the team, and keep fighting Mercedes and hopefully a Ferrari back at the top of their game.